Syndemic Disease Modeling to Optimize Health Service Integration in Africa

Mary Mwanyika-Sando of Africa Academy for Public Health in Tanzania will develop a mathematical model that accounts for multiple co-occurring diseases and their interactions as well as resource constraints to design integrated healthcare services for people living with HIV in Burkina Faso, Tanzania, and South Africa. The team will use high-quality longitudinal data from four health and demographic surveillance sites. They will characterize co-morbidities and the syndemic clustering of HIV with other diseases (synergistic epidemics), including hypertension, diabetes, and depression, that is due to interrelated biological, environmental, and behavioral factors. They will use the model to predict current and future chronic disease burdens of HIV and other diseases, and then determine optimal health service delivery. The results will be used to co-design intervention implementation strategies with local implementers and policy makers.