Yasir Shafiq of Aga Khan University in Pakistan and Anne Lee of Brigham and Women's Hospital in the U.S. will develop geospatial models to predict risks of undernutrition among adolescent girls and pregnant and lactating women in settings affected by conflict, climate and COVID-19 to help target interventions. Globally, around 30–40 million pregnant women and 50 million adolescent girls are underweight. Risks of undernutrition have recently been amplified by numerous armed conflicts, climatic shocks such as flooding and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-time data shortages prevent interventions, such as balanced energy-protein supplements, from reaching the highest-risk groups. Using Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial modeling, they will develop geospatial models for countries vulnerable to conflict and climate change, such as Ethiopia and Yemen. By incorporating socio-demographic and economic indicators, and climate-related and conflict-related shocks from national databases, they can estimate risks based on exposure and predict outcomes, such as undernutrition and anemia.
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