Fernando Bozza at Fiocruz in Brazil and colleagues will quantify the real-world value of COVID-19 vaccines in Brazil for protecting individuals from severe disease and for protecting the entire population from being infected. Knowing how effective vaccination is, and how durable the response in the real world is, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, it is critical for ending the pandemic. They will determine the effectiveness of the vaccine for protecting individuals using an approach called test-negative design together with statistical and machine learning approaches to compare the severity of respiratory disease in COVID-19 patients from 43 hospitals. At the population level, they will perform an ecological study, and use regression analysis accounting for inequities to vaccine access, to measure the effect of vaccinations on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
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